Report on the Functions and Structure of Monitoring and Observation Committee MOC) with Respect to the Sudan Census, by

Peter Ubomba-Jaswa[1] - Census Monitoring and Evaluation Consultant

29 November 2007

Introduction - Re-stating the obvious: A justification for Monitoring and Observation Committee

One of the most common preoccupations with a planned and impending census is attempts by both demographic experts and novices to engage in the predictive or guessing game of what the size of the population will be. This is regardless of whether there are unreliable or credible information and tools that form the basis of such predictions or guesses. All ‘predictors’ may have some hypothesis and or anticipation of what the situation is, and will be, but census undertaking is nationally a sensitive exercise,  it would therefore be both politically and scientifically prudent to have all the census processes independently and objectively verified – more so where accurate and comprehensive census exercise has been lacking or in doubt. This is particularly so where the census processes is obviously heavily burdened by expectations to provide resolutions to existing real or imagined national and sub-national socio-political, economic and demographic tensions, in addition to being one of the most essential tools for the design of people-centred development strategies. This independent verification, in any way, is not intended to cast doubt on the performance of census functionaries engaged at all levels in technical preparation for and execution of the census count, processing, analysis, publication and dissemination of the results[2]. It is one of the major mechanisms/tools for guidance of the processes aimed at strengthening the credibility of results thereof – it a scientific tool to establish objectivity. The institution of independent evaluation and monitoring (M&E) system(s) is, by now, a common practice as part of built-in mechanisms to guarantee organizational effectiveness in achieving set goals or desired results[3]. That, to a large measure, justifies the establishment of the Sudan Census Monitoring and Observation Committee (MOC), even if there was no reason for contention of the results by interest groups.

However, there is still another important justification for the institution of an independent monitoring and observation team. Although a census seemingly takes several years to plan, the last several months and weeks to the census count are characteristically defined by intensive and fast-paced activities with not a small amount of anxiety among the functionaries. The census functionaries responsible for the execution of the various census processes, are required to make periodic or regular reports on what has been accomplished; however, for both practical and scientific (adherence to objectivity) reasons they should not be expected to play the roles of both internal and external monitors and evaluators of their own work. Accordingly, they need the support of independent monitors and evaluators to give them objective assessment and guidance as they focus their energy on the actual execution of the census operational plans. The vital role of the MOC is therefore to validate or affirm the outcomes of various census activities and create consensus on final results of the census count. The table below is indicative of the census activities that should be monitored. 

Some of the activities to be monitored and observed:

The reports or information from functionaries will form part of the inputs or tools for effective evaluation but they should not, in anyway, be made to replace monitoring and evaluation processes, no matter how convincing they may sound or look ,and even may come to similar or same conclusions. The principle of validation or affirmation must be rigorously upheld and applied to all census activities.

Focus on Data Processing Centres  (DPCs)and Archiving: Archives audit and organizational scan (i.e. what need to be done)

Quite often the preparation of census activities focuses so much on the count and there is tendency to leave data processing as some of the activities that will be attended to when the time comes. However, data processing and archiving must be prepared for well in advance as it is the last process that actually gives birth to the census results. Forms retrieved from the field may very easily be mishandled and the census results distorted within the DPCs and poor archiving.  MOC should therefore act on the following:

A: Undertake archive organizational scan in all DPCs

1. Investigate the physical structures being constructed or designated for archiving census forms and other materials with emphasis on:

        i.            Size and quality;

      ii.            Location and surrounding environment(s) (physical and human activities);

    iii.            Internal design/structure, note the relationship between

a.      Forms archival areas and Scanning area;

b.      Transit point(s) for forms preparation for scanning

c.      Transit point(s) for forms return back to archives

d.      Transportation routes to and from archives

     iv.            Safety and security arrangements (fence/wall, fire protection, weather/climatic protection, rodents protection, 24hrs armed guards and check points, etc);

       v.            Source(s) of power supply and consistency.

2. Scan internal organizational structures of all archives with respect to:

                    i.            Arrangements of census materials – particularly shelving/placement methods or strategies adopted;

                  ii.            Description of materials with appropriate keys to guide access’

                iii.            Scanning processes and daily achievements/performance – note rejected and damaged, etc

                 iv.            Format for and regularity of transmission of scanned data to CBS and SSCCSE

                   v.            Perform accessibility tests using scanned and exported EA lists;

                 vi.            Assessment of post-data-capture security and disaster management:

a.      Re-examination of changing or static physical environmental conditions under which materials are stored – both external and internal;

b.      Examine preservation strategies with regard to storage measures/conditions for the protection of materials from loss, alteration or deterioration.

               vii.            Any other essential related activities not identified herein.

B:  Undertake an audit of Census Archives in all DPCs

3. Perform diagnostic random tests on all the archives with respect to:

                    i.            Mutual validation: archive vs captured data – that is, materials scanned and exported are contained in the archives; 

                  ii.            Identification of materials that might have not been scanned and therefore not exported

                iii.            Lay the basis for effective query resolutions with respect to final data output using the archives

                 iv.            Any other related activities that may be found necessary in that process.

[Note: This section is a priority because in relates to the validation of the census result and therefore must be carried out in support of that process which will be ongoing.

In addition, it should be noted that, the eventual decision on disposal of census questionnaires will in part depend on the certainty of 100% capture of all materials in the archives and exported and archived as flat-file and images by the CBS and SSCCSE The above audit and organizational scan are meant to establish that certainty. ]

Against the background of census activities outlined above the MOC is logically assigned duties and responsibilities as follows:

1.      Monitor and observe the census execution operations at all stages and levels;

2.      Ensure compliance with census established criteria and standards;

3.      Ensure comprehensive coverage;

4.      Ensure transparency of all census procedures and operations;

5.      Provide regular reports including recommendations when necessary to the HNPCC and to PCC;

6.      Provide report on final census to the HNPCC;

7.      Provide technical advice to the PCC in writing when necessary.

Structure of MOC and Infrastructure implications:

Ideally the organisation mandated to take charge of independent monitoring and observation should be assuredly neutral and external to the country conducting the census where there may be obvious contending parties or claims (and counter claims) underpinned by perceived or well articulated benefits to be derived from the census results[4].  However, it would seem that Sudan has opted for an internal body made up of representatives of all key stakeholders or interest groups to ensure that the established or appointed monitoring organisation(s) and experts operate within the principle of neutrality to guarantee that the census results that will satisfy all parties.

Accordingly, in the case of Sudan there has been a creation of not only the National MOC but also two branches of MOC in the South and North. The model of monitoring and observation arrangement being adopted by Sudan has one major advantage: It has the potential to create confidence and trust in local expertise and therefore, in the long run, may undermine continued dependence on outside expertise with the implication of a reduced cost of the exercise. However, the current arrangement has also the potential to explode into a very huge nationwide bureaucracy which may be too expensive to maintain even in the short term. Perhaps the greatest threat is that any apparent or real bias by MOC is likely to be blown out of proportion and therefore unduly undermine the credibility of the census exercise. In this regard the local MOC management will be walking a tight rope of accountability in the midst of contending parties each of whom is being fully tuned in to spot the slightest fault from any of the census officials. MOC must therefore set and uphold the highest standard of integrity and take all States as ‘equal’ in all respect and to be subject to the same rigour of monitoring and observation. Two related words must necessarily underpin MOC’s function: INDEPENDENCE and NEUTRALITY – and those should ring out loud and clear all the time the spotlight is on MOC.

Reportedly MOC is currently made of up 65 members representing various interest groups (25 of them representing the States); the MOC expects to have an office in each of the 25 states manned by the representatives, each of whom will also need to have an assistant and a secretary (understandably all temporary) to function effectively. These arrangements require either the construction or acquisition of new buildings or renting of buildings for offices and equipping them with furniture, Information Technology and Communication (ICT) systems. That means there will be at least a total of 50 employees in all the 25 States. And yet, these are not yet the technical monitors. Due to the fact there is no much time left (about weeks to census count), and some of MOCs’ experts should be active in the field right now, it would be advisable to rent office accommodation for MOC officials for this census operation. MOC offices can then be constructed to meet the needs of all officials for subsequent census operations and management.

Strategically these State MOC officers will facilitate the work of professional monitors that will be recruited. It is recommended that there should be at least 5 Senior Monitors (all external) who will each be in charge of the supervision of monitoring activities in a group of 5 states (these could also be arranged in terms of ‘zones or regions – whichever is convinient’). It is further recommended that each of the 25 States have 2 independent monitors (preferably male and female) who may be a mixture of local and international expertise (either 50:50 or the latter must be in the majority – that is, no pair should be made of local experts only). Since there is going to be no training for experts, it is advisable that majority should be those who are experienced and are familiar with technical aspects of census. The 5 Senior Monitors plus 50 monitors should be led by a Technical Team Leader (external). In total there should be at least 56 Monitoring Experts. This may be a personal bias, but an Archival Manager is highly recommended to be added to the team of monitoring experts. 

Finally Action

Having spelt out some areas of monitoring activities that MOC will take charge off, it is logical to suggest some steps for recruiting of experts and provide initial indication of cost.

1.      Technical Monitoring Team Leader (TMTL) should be recruited as a matter of urgency – this is a critical moment for the census execution – if possible he/she should be on the ground for the duration until census count has been completed with limited breaks in between – perhaps for a total of 100 days (in 4 blocks of 25 or 2 of 50) [Fee: $450/day]

2.      The recruitment of the 5 Senior Monitors should follow closely that of the TMTL. They could be on the ground for 60 to 75 days [Fee $400/day]

3.      The 50 Monitors should be brought in for 35 days to cover the period just before the census count, the census count, and just after the census count (retrieval of materials) [$375/day]

4.      Note:

a.      All 56 proposed members of the Monitoring Team will also attract a maximum DSA of $166/day;

b.      In addition, there will be internal flights arrangements that will cost nearly $1000 a return trip – the number of such flights will vary according to the position of each Monitor as outlined above, but will also depend on MOC arrangements whenever necessary;

c.      For the international experts – the TMTL, Senior Monitors plus at least 25 of the Monitors, there will be at least an international flight estimated to cost about $2000/per person.

5.      Finally, an experienced Census Archivist need to be brought on board, perhaps to spend about 40 days in two blocks of 20. The first should cover the preparatory period before census count and the second should cover the census count, retrieval of materials, and scanning and final storage.

Please note that the ‘actions’ outlined have centred on recruitment of experts to execute the activities that MOC is responsible for as outlined earlier. They are not spelt out in concrete terms – that is exact budget – deliberately to allow for flexibility for MOC management and donors/funders including government to work the suggestions to acceptable and manageable conclusions. But one item need to brought out for immediate action – the recruitment of the so called Technical Monitoring Team Leader.

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