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A Fourth Mission Report to the Census Monitoring and
Observation Committee (MOC) of the Sudan
Census questionnaires a crisis waiting to happen
Author Pali Lehohla
Statistician-General
Statistics South Africa
Mission Period
18-27 April 2008
On the issue of questionnaires: a crisis waiting to
happen
1. Background
The political climate in the Sudan created very serious
constraints as regards the latitude on the number of
questionnaires that would be printed. Under
circumstances packaging and printing of questionnaires
does not become an issue because of benefits of
economies of scale past a threshold plus say 30% to 50%
additional print runs. The number of questionnaires
printed for approximately 7 million households in Sudan,
1.4 million in the South and 5.7 million in the North
are about 8.3 million. Of these 2.2 million were
distributed to the South and 6.1 million in the North.
The South has thus got about 800 000 more questionnaires
than what the quick count suggested and the North have
had 500 000 more questionnaires that the quick count
suggested.
These margins, in particular for the North are very
tight, given that they are barely 10% more than the
quick count estimate, compared to approximately 60% of
what the quick count in the South provided.
2. Packaging and distribution
The packaging and distribution of questionnaires in the
North was more efficient as it provided for firstly a
hundred questionnaires to enumerators irrespective of
the size of their Enumeration Areas, and assigned 800
questionnaires to the supervisor for evening out any
requirements as and when they occurred. So although
the margins for the North were tight, the distribution
allows for managing and providing questionnaires as and
when shortages occur.
In the South the packaging was for 200 questionnaires
per enumerator, irrespective of the size of their EA or
locality. This implied for the South an allocation of
questionnaires even where more questionnaires were not
needed without a possibility of structured
redistribution of questionnaires. This approach has
induced an artificial scarcity.
3. Listing information
This information would be very useful to identify where
shortages exist, however it is not readily available
even in Khartoum State, with all the necessary high
level resources, this information could only be
forthcoming after three days of being requested but even
then not for all states. What is encouraging is that
the information exists, what is disturbing is that it is
prepared on forms that were not prescribed and at a
later stage a form has been designed to collate the
information.
The listing information for Khartoum for the four Local
Areas thus far covered shows that the listing by
enumerators has a discrepancy of up to 30% between quick
count and listing. This is to be expected particularly
in Khartoum and possibly in other urban areas where each
site corresponds to more than one household. So for
Khartoum and other urban centres (with Khartoum showing
the highest propensity of coefficients between quick
count and listing, the allocation should have been in
the region of 30% or more questionnaires in Khartoum
than what the quick count suggested) and possibly 20%
more in other urban centres. Based on the 450 000
surplus in the North, Khartoum will claim 300 000 of
this surplus leaving all other urban areas in the North
to share 100 000 questionnaires.
4. A crisis waiting to happen in two to four
days
The crisis of shortages in the North is a crisis waiting
to happen, but only postponed by the efficient
distribution of questionnaires. An additional 10% of
the original allocation will be necessary for the North
to avoid this crisis in the next four days.
In the South the crisis has begun to manifest itself as
questionnaires have started to get finished and
supervisors do not have excess stock. This problem is
unlikely to be resolved even though theoretically the
South might have enjoyed a 60% margin to play with on
questionnaires. Ironically in the South the crisis has
manifested itself much earlier despite better margins.
5. What needs to be done?
By delivering about a million questionnaires to Sudan in
the next four days, this crisis can be averted. Six
hundred thousand of these questionnaires should be
provided to the North and four hundred thousand to the
South.
6. What of the political problem?
When the strategy is executed with speed it leaves very
little time for creative political solutions to emerge.
Managed properly even with poor record keeping, more
questionnaires would not lead to successful creativity
politically. If enumeration closes on the 6th
of May as scheduled and all mo-pup areas are followed
through there is very little as regards the fear for
room for political creativity.
7. Implications
There are five implications that the implementation of
this solution brings along with it. These are time,
financial, communication, political and weather.
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The delivery
of questionnaires will delay the closure of the
project by about ten days;
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With the
extension of time by ten days the enumeration budget
will double and payment for the entire chain of
command is bound to double and arrangements for
additional stipends should be made immediately and
governance implications communicated to those in
authority;
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The extension
of period needs to be communicated no later than the
30th of April to allow the forces to
continue to work for extended periods;
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The listing
information as of 21st April should be
collected from all supervisors long before
additional questionnaires are delivered, preferably
by the 30th of April and immediately
subjected to scrutiny. This will mitigate the
political problem. The difficulties will have to be
communicated through the political structures and
they have to be assured that the census is on course
and there is every extra care to ensure a
transparent process; and
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The weather in
the South will continue to threaten the success of
the census as the rains begin to intensify.
8. Recommendation
This matter be taken up at the highest political level
and the British High Commissioner gets the DRS to
prioritise the printing of a million questionnaires with
delivery start to end in the next five days.
9. Conclusion
Many fingers can be pointed to many people, but we are
in it together and political sensitivities had to be
dealt with and these are their consequences. What is
important is to demonstrate that the consequences are
not insurmountable and the sensitivities have
continuously been taken care of.
Having managed the crisis of a postponement should give
us courage to manage the crisis of successfully making
materials available to enumerate everybody. This is
another test we should overcome.
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